For many years, those of us in the scientific community had been warning that humanity was headed for trouble. The problem is that science and the media forged an alliance that resulted in the people in power being bombarded with one story after another and it became difficult to tell fiction from fact.
   As Professor of computational modelling at the University of South West England I should have known better than to get embroiled with the press. Complacency set in and I lost sight of our goals and duty to society.
   In confronting my past in writing about the event I am performing my duty to science and maybe I will find solace and a way to regain some vestige of the man that I once was.
   Initially we modelled the extinction life events such as an asteroid collision with Earth and major tsunamis caused by Tenerife committing geological suicide. Our arguments about global warming blew hot and cold and included the theories about the gulf streams ‘Atlantic conveyor’ taking a rest stop for a few thousand years resulting in Europe and Britain freezing over. In the USA my colleagues modelled super volcanoes at Yellowstone, category 7 tornados over Chicago and devastating Californian earthquakes that turn Nevada into Pacific beachfront real estate.
   This overload of information blasted out by the media insidiously desensitised us all to the extent that we failed to recognise and react adequately when the real H5N1 threat manifested in a few chickens in Asia.
   The daily news invariably included a short story on how this bird flu was transmitted by direct contact between affected birds and humans and reported small numbers of deaths clustered among farming family groups. The story always came with a warning stating that it could mutate and transfer human to human.
We modelled the scenarios, saw and understood the consequences and the results were frightening. We predicted a global pandemic and a three month lead time on creating a vaccine.
   We failed. In early March 2008 the virus mutated and spread human to human. It took four months to create a vaccine by which time 200 million people were dead.
   These statistics, far higher than those we had earlier modelled and released via health experts to our friends in the press  meant little to me whilst the loss of family was and still is devastating. To never see nor speak to my wife Alison, 7 year old daughter Melanie and 11 year old son David again is more than my soul can bear.
   But for my selfish belief in science they would probably still be alive. I thought it safer to keep them near to me rather than moving them to our isolated country house in Aberdeenshire. My plan had been for them to be amongst the first to be vaccinated but this fell through when the vaccine took longer to develop. They died before it was ready and it was my fault. I saw the pandemic burning its fire through the cities of the world and still – did nothing.
   Even now, one year on I wish to God that they had not trusted my judgement or my faith in science. Alison’s ‘Don’t worry dear, you always solve these problems’ torments me. I cannot sleep properly as nightmares invade my mind. As I fall asleep I see Melanie asking me ‘Why did we have to die daddy?’, or, David saying ‘What will I be when I grow up, Daddy?’ and the worst is Alison saying ‘You were wrong Stephen, we trusted you and you let us down’.
   I glance at the mirror on the wall and see a ghost. My hair, receding at the front is grey and cut short. My ploughed brow, deep sunken green eyes and hollow cheeks belie the once plump, rounded features of yesteryear. There is no sparkle, no brashness, and no joy etched there anymore. My razor thin frame fits the coffin ready pale blue suit. A black tie and black dress shoes complete the grim image.
‘Is there hope for you, me, for any of us?’ I ask aloud. Receiving no reply I lock these grim thoughts away and prepare to drive home to my remaining daughter Leanne. She is so young that she does not understand why Mummy, Melanie and David had to go away and I find it so hard to find words to explain. Her love keeps me going so I will stay and I will rebuild our lives.